Since I don't want to be a complete Scrooge, I'll talk about what computing technology holds for us next year in terms of a good news - bad news. Those of you who don't want your holiday spoiled by the bad (or good) news may simply choose to ignore the offending section.

Prices Drop and drop and drop...

Pricing is going to take it in the teeth again next year, as most of the major hardware manufacturers have reached a market saturation point. To get the next wave of consumers onboard, computers and embedded devices (those which have only one or two functions) are going to have to become outlandishly cheap. CPU maker Cyrix already has a jump on some this with their MediaGX series embedded CPU, which moves most of the peripheral processes onto the CPU. The good new for consumers is that embedding functions makes the manufacturing cost per unit plummet. Intel, which long considered embedded solutions to be counter to their business plan, is taking a second look.

Everywhere you turn, prices are falling rapidly. RAM memory upgrades used to be something you skipped a mortgage payment to afford. Now you can afford to upgrade by laying off the beer and pizza for two weeks. The same goes for hard drive space, and CPUs (bless you, AMD and Cyrix), and peripherals...you get the idea.

Open Standards given a new lease

You have heard me lament during the last two years that the increasingly proprietary nature of hardware, software, and otherwise open protocols are the biggest dangers consumers face. Thankfully, I haven't been alone in yowling about this: the developer community is beginning to listen. What is even more hopeful is that many of the boardroom types are deciding against the proprietary solutions. Buying modular products based on open standards allows businesses to scale their systems to their needs without overhauling their entire infrastructure when a single product vendor can't cut the mustard anymore.

While the news isn't perfect (see the bad news), it is encouraging to see programmers who sold out to proprietary solutions taking another look at open standards.

Karl Marx may have the last laugh

We've all heard the schoolroom tales about how working together makes for better solutions that are more fair to everyone. It turns out Ms. Mituzik (the one who wouldn't let you bring your frog to show-and-tell) was right when she said that cooperating is always better than just having your own way all the time.

The computing movement that epitomizes this ideal is called Open Source, and it is finally gaining the recognition that it deserves. The principle is simple: write a program you find useful and make it available for anyone else to change, modify, improve, or whatever. Make sure (by legal means) that no one can sell it without including the all the source code for their changes. Since many hands make the lights work, the quality, stability, and robustness of code soars. Programs stay running for months or year on end. Everyone's happy.

Now even if you think the Open Source Movement is the type of nuttiness that you would expect out of a bunch of Socialist egghead academics, don't dismiss it as something St. Joseph stepped in at a Bethlehem stable. Open Source software runs the Internet and has for years, no matter what Microsoft advertises. Programs like SendMail and the Apache web server do most of the dirty work on the Internet, and the new Belle of the Open Source Ball, Linux, is hardly new to this particular dance.

Linux is a textbook example of how the Open Source philosophy works. But how do companies like RedHat, who assemble the most popular distribution of Linux, stay afloat selling what is, essentially, free software? While Linux is available for free download via the Internet, most people would rather buy the distribution "pre-canned" on a CD, not unlike buying soap in the grocery store: you could buy all the ingredients and make your own, but why waste your time when you need to get clean right away? RedHat and other similar companies are changing the way we think about selling software. After perusing the business model, many big players are starting to dip their toes in the water. Intel, Netscape, Novell, Corel...all of these companies are deciding to open their source, or invest in companies who promote Open Source.

E-commerce comes of age

Nothing in medicine is as serendipitous as discovering that a drug is mediocre at fulfilling it's intended purpose but has very beneficial side effects. The Internet is just like a medicine in this regard: Systems of business and organization are getting a sudden (and overdue) lesson in the Internet's ability to "route around" obstacles. The ability to make your own buy-sell stock decisions via the Internet (bypassing the broker), purchasing products at significant discount via secured web sites (bypassing the middleman), and collaborating on how to influence society, politics, business and religion without the barriers of geography are all benefits of the wired world. Naturally, e-commerce is the one that interests business most.

Next year will see two things that make e-commerce solutions more popular than ever: easier setup for businesses, and a shifting attitude toward pumping personal financial data over the web. Many of the solutions for selling a company's products on the web will be set up in a day. This simplification will make product moving web sites as ubiquitous as FAX machines or telephones.

By the same token, there is no point to offering such services if a consumer doesn't trust the delivery infrastructure. The recent pop media example of using the Internet as a natural extension of the communications services available has helped many people get over their fears. Barring any major disasters in e-commerce security, next year will see the number of average consumers buying products on the web skyrocket.

Beware the W2K Computer

Much has been made of how the physical infrastructure of computer hardware "needs to grow up." You've even heard me declaiming about the advantages and advances of Universal Serial Bus (USB), the AGP port for Graphics, and even about Device Bay, which will allow you to only install the hardware into your box that you need, when you need it. All of these changes are being made to further a "more stable, more modular system" called Windows 2000 Compliant Computer. (Believe it or not, this doesn't have anything to do with the recently renamed Windows 2000 OS a.k.a. Windows NT.)

What I've discovered recently is that Microsoft, along with Intel, is setting itself up to dictate the hardware that will run future versions of Windows. While Microsoft may have done so passively in the past (such as supporting only the Intel Architecture for its home products), now it is taking direct control of what gets built, and what doesn't. If Microsoft doesn't approve of a product, they simply cut off the developer's access to Software Development Kits (SDKs) that give third party vendors access to critical information about the present and developing Operating Systems. Without the SDKs it is almost impossible to create a well-integrated product, or to write software that complies with the "Designed For Windows" logo standard. Can you think of any other company that controls both hardware and software so thoroughly that it has managed to put a pair of Operating System dependent keys on the standard PC keyboard? Whoa.

Embrace, Extend, Extinguish

This is the Microsoft mantra, codified. It applies to every aspect of their business plan and has served them so well for so long that it seems invisible. Peek behind the curtain and follow the logic: When a new product (let's say, Netscape) enters the market, Microsoft gets chummy with it. Really chummy. Then it creates a product of its own (Internet Explorer) that works just the same, but with a few "improvements." Using its dominance of the Operating System, Office Application and Development markets, Microsoft then opens hooks into their other products that only work with their "improved" product and they prevent the competition from accessing the same hooks. The non-Microsoft product perishes ignominiously.

This may be immoral, but whether it is legal or not has yet to be determined. The truly alarming news that surfaced around Halloween is that Microsoft, in a bid to control the infrastructure that the Internet runs on, may attempt to apply that EEE philosophy to the lingua franca of the Internet: standard protocols. These protocols, like TCP/IP, SMTP, POP, and others are the only languages that the Internet has in common. These common languages allows servers and clients of a wide variety to communicate with each other. If Microsoft applied the EEE model to these sacred cows, the Internet is in for a rocky ride: Microsoft Internet vs. Standards Internet.

Proprietary in Perpetuity

I won't continue to rail against Microsoft. I've said enough, as has every Linux user alive, and the Department of Justice. Now it is time to turn our eyes closer to home...AutoDesk.

There are always advantages to being the 800 lb. gorilla and AutoDesk has used every last one to make as much money with as little effort as possible. The fact that their flagship product went through at least 4 versions without a badly needed overhaul testifies to this. The fact that competing vendors offer better support, for a less expensive product that is available for more than one platform is not lost on the rumbling ranks of puck pushers. AutoDesk has improved its platform only at the cost (usage and price) to its users, not under the challenge of competition. But who is going to buy a competitor's product when contractor won't touch drawings not done in AutoCAD? The cycle of high priced software that must be frequently upgrade is a cruel one indeed. By hooking in to a Windows-only view of the world, AutoDesk exacerbates the strangulation of choice which is already being stifled by proprietary technologies (ActiveX, DirectX) and products (Windows, et all.) The ridiculous claims that DWG is their proprietary format is as silly as suggesting someone copyright the King James Bible "because you could make a killing on licensing its printing." Clearly, Carol Bartz has been cribbing from Bill Gates' playbook. See "tricks, dirty."

Have you experimented with products from some of AutoDesk's competitors? Perhaps now is a good time to try. It can only broaden your marketability.

These concerns I've raised aren't meant to get you down, they are meant to fire you up. Christmas is a time to reflect on things that really matter. The choices you make in this coming year can affect more than just you and yours...they affect all of us. Let me leave you with this: What choices will you make this coming year to make this a better world for those around you?

Peace on Earth,

WebWalker